Reed Atkin

Should CPG food and beverage startups be focused on getting in restaurants? Should restaurants be focused on partnering with CPG food and beverage startups? Yes! Less competition drives more trials, increased sales velocity, and higher margins. This week in "Retail Is Not Dead?" I covered Chipotle Mexican Grill adding Open Water and poppi to their menu, and how to replicate that strategy. Also covered Mattel, Inc. and Whole Foods Market doubling down on experiences, June's strong eGrocery month, how to manage cash flow as a brand in retail, the shifting timeline of back to school, and how to use Sutro Software to build apps. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/g3KDzhh5

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Join Circana for an expert webinar on America’s shopping, eating, and cooking behaviors on Wednesday, July 17, at 1 p.m. CT! Darren Seifer and I will share new insights into the connections between food and beverage retail sales, shopping habits, at-home consumption, and out-of-home foodservice trends. We will cover: ☑️ Mealtime and snacking opportunities, exploring how U.S. consumer behavior can inspire new sales and marketing ideas. ☑️ Using consumer behavior data to develop effective growth strategies for all sectors of food and beverages, both in-store and online. ☑️ Why a one-size-fits-all approach won’t work in today’s diverse U.S. market, as different groups have unique ways of solving mealtime challenges. Don’t miss this chance to gain fresh insights and uncover new growth possibilities for your business! Secure your spot by registering here: https://lnkd.in/gASHa4hH

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There's a subtle but HUGELY important trend playing out in CPG that may have ripple effects across the entire industry: Modern consumers are starting to care less about legacy brands. This article was specifically about Kraft Mac & Cheese, but I think it's indicative of a wider trend happening across the CPG landscape, and in alcohol in particular. Many multi-national, household name brands don't carry the same weight with consumers that they did even five or ten years ago. So, what does this mean & what are the implications? Well, it has lots of implications but two things I feel strongly are true: 1. This is a particularly interesting time to be launching and scaling challenger CPG brands 2. Big CPG conglomerates will need to get aggressive in shaking up their portfolios Going to be an exciting and interesting few years in the space!

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This might be the most influential building in our industry. 84.51˚ is a subsidiary of Kroger and is an incredible not-so-secret weapon in ML-driven data analytics. This 2015 acquisition has been the powerhouse behind the rise of Simple Truth, and their evolution into mainstream adoption of natural and organic product. They analyze over 3 billion shipping baskets per year to deliver over 1 billion personalized offers across 1250 CPG brands. If there is one clear pro-consumer benefit to a Kroger-Albertson’s merger, it would be to integrate all of Albco’s loyalty data into 84.51. There is nothing about this concept that is limited to Big CPG brands. It can work for emerging innovation brands also. The only problem is that the 84.51 data can’t analyze what Kroger isn’t already selling, so it works better for Fast Followers than true FTM innovation There are two ways Pod Foods can help with this: 1. 👉We can sell our cutting edge innovation brands to a few divisions of Kroger to work those data points into the 84.51 algorithms. 2. 👉We have our own ML-enabled data platform, which is PREDICTIVE of what is going to be hot on 84.51…18 months before it happens. Pod Foods Kroger #innovation #grocery #machinelearning

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I love the protein bar category. We've seen significant consolidation over the past few years, but it's still as competitive as ever (see the timeline below). While we often talk about the challenges of going up against the big players, the data tells a different story. Shout out to the privately-owned protein bar brands, Robert Irvine, Barebells, IQBAR, Clio Snacks, Power Crunch, GoMacro who continue to grow the category and drive innovation. Also kudos to the financial wizards Bain Capital and 1440 Foods Lets go! 🔥 It's been a challenging time for Mondelēz International , Mars and Kellogg Company Below is a quick timeline for the sake of posterity. Also I took the liberty to add Mars as the owner of RXBAR and Special K due to the Mars purchase of Kellenova (please be easy on me on in the comments) October 2017: RxBar acquired by Kellogg’s for $600 million. July 2019: Perfect Bar acquired by Mondelez International for $340 million. August 2019: Quest Nutrition acquired by Simply Good Foods Co. for $1 billion. November 2020: Kind Bar fully acquired by Mars, Inc. for an estimated $5 billion. August 2022: Clif Bar acquired by Mondelez International for $2.9 billion. August 2024: Kellanova (Kellogg's Snack Division) acquired by Mars, Inc. for an estimated $36 billion. #SnackWars #ProteinPowerPlays #BarFight #SnackAttack #BigSnackEnergy

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🙏🏼 | Market Expansion: Increasing Pet Parent Support to Create Lifetime Consumers Ed Sayres, Advisor, Canine Care Certified ❤️ Ed revolutionized the industry, shifting terms from "Mutt & Dog Pound" to "Rescue & Shelter." 📍Pet demand far exceeds supply—8M dogs needed vs. only 2M available, a 75% shortfall. 📍Behavior is the top reason for pet returns, followed by relocation. Public education on responsible pet care is essential. Nelva Bryant DVM, MPH, Veterinary Advisor, Delta Air Lines Airlines and CEO & Founder, WHEN PETS FLY 📍Pet travel education remains a significant challenge. 📍Pet-friendly spaces must maximize throughput with existing resources. 📍Education is a top priority in pet care. 📍Airlines with 60+ seats transporting animals must report incidents to the Department of Transportation. 📍Out of 2.6M pets transported by cargo across 15 airlines from 2016 to 2022, only 167 incidents occurred—mostly due to crate issues or escape attempts. Miles Thorson, CEO, Odie Pet Insurance 📍Odie scales by offering more than just coverage—telehealth, education, and support to enhance pet and owner well-being, keeping pets in homes. 📍Economic-driven euthanasia is a troubling issue they ARE solving for. 📍Expanding wellness and routine care reimbursements is a key growth focus. Joe Watson, President & CEO, Petland, Inc. (USA) 📍Mark Cushing’s Pet Nation highlights the U.S. dog shortage [https://lnkd.in/dKP95dCF]. 📍With only 2,600 USDA breeders producing 800,000 dogs/year (Petland places 60,000), demand for 8M pets/year drives reliance on unregulated puppy sources. 📍Two major animal welfare groups spread misinformation, claiming overpopulation, while primarily focusing on fundraising. 📍Laws restricting pet sales impact a third of the U.S. population, creating significant industry headwinds. 📍An additional 117,000 unregulated breeders further disrupt the market. Matt Russell, Co-Founder & CEO, Petszel 📍Pet preferences are shifting—feline adoptions are rising, while larger dog adoptions lag. 📍No tech solution exists to address the significant challenges of pet transfers. 📍Improving the pet seeker journey can enhance care education and reduce return rates. 📍60% of returned dogs are due to behavior issues, highlighted by 40,000 adoption surveys. Moderator: Bruce L. Truman, MBA, President & Founder, BLT Technology CC: Kisaco Research, Karl Ghamsari, Poppy Howard-Wall, Emma Richardson, Jodie P., Ellis Fordham, Cara Fautley, Jessica Spiandore. #Growth #MarketExpansion #VeterinaryCare #Pet #PetIndustry #Petcare #Vet #Veterinary #PetConnect #AlwaysLearning

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This is a bit shocking but not surprising. Many wineries are struggling due to fierce competition and unoriginal marketing. I specialize in helping wineries expand their mailing lists and boost their direct-to-consumer sales. For instance, we have successfully grown some Washington Winery lists by over 2000 people monthly, all of whom have expressed interest in their offerings. Ping me if you're interested in learning more - I can provide valuable assistance in this area. #wineries #D2Csales #marketinghelp

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🌟 The Return of Fiber: CPG's Next Big Wave Who would have thought fiber would be making headlines again? But here we are in 2024, and this humble nutrient is having yet another turn in the CPG spotlight. The timing couldn't be better. As conversations around GLP-1s dominate wellness circles, consumers are rediscovering fiber's natural role in appetite regulation. Data shows searches for fiber-rich foods are up 29% this year – and smart brands are taking notice. Remember the protein-and-fiber boom of the early 2000s? This time feels different. We're seeing fiber show up in unexpected places: sparkling waters, smoothie boosters, and even sodas. Even though brands like poppi and Jones Soda Co. already contain fiber, there's a fascinating consumer psychology at play. While terms like "prebiotics" and "probiotics" can feel scientific and distant, everyone understands fiber. It's familiar. It's trusted. And yes, we all know exactly what it does for our digestion 😉 Leading the charge in the beverage space, pioneers like Bruno Gorgulho Rodrigues at vibi+ and Tom Bushkie at hellowater are revolutionizing how we think about functional hydration. They're proving that getting your daily fiber doesn't have to mean choking down supplements or forcing down another bowl of bran cereal. The innovation opportunity here is massive. As we look toward 2025, expect to see fiber-fortified products expanding beyond traditional categories. The real winners will be brands that can make fiber both functional AND delicious. #CPG #FoodInnovation #Wellness #ConsumerTrends #ProductDevelopment Photo by Vanessa Loring

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The Beans (Bean Crunchy), a Korean foodtech company, secured seed funding from Newkids Investment, leveraging 300% sales growth and export plans to Southeast Asia and China for further expansion.

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BIG news in CPG: Keurig Doctor Pepper is acquiring Ghost Energy for over $1 BILLION. This is one of the larger deals we've seen in non-alc CPG in a while (we saw a $2B deal in the booze business just a few weeks ago). I think this is a great move by KDP and a good sign for CPG M&A markets overall. Many of the large, nationwide brands owned by the conglomerates have reached points of saturation. They're still incredible brands (and always will be), but in order to find new pockets of customers, these conglomerates will NEED to acquire new companies. I'm a firm believer that the best R&D strategy for any large CPG brand is in fact just a very effective and aggressive M&A strategy. Startups can be incredibly effective at testing, iterating, and fighting to build new, loyal customer bases. Large CPG companies are incredibly effective at scaling brands that are ALREADY working. This marriage between Ghost and KDP makes a ton of sense and likely won't be the last big CPG deal we see in the next few months. Excited to see which one comes next!

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Latin America is the region with the lowest percentage of new CPG products launched between January and May 2024, according to Mintel's report. And globally, innovation in the food and drink sector has declined the most, with only 26% of new products launched in this period, compared to 50% in 2007. Artificial Intelligence and eCommerce tools are lowering barriers, speeding up innovation cycles and creating new opportunities for agile startups to win over consumers and/or collaborate with larger corporations.

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It has been a long week for The Boston Beer Company ($SAM). On 5/31, the WSJ reported that Japanese spirits maker Suntory was in "early talks" to acquire $SAM, maker of Samuel Adams beer and Truly hard seltzer. Shares rose +22%. Historical trends in Beer M&A and with these players in particular make this an interesting one to watch: -- Craft brewer takeout multiples: Historically, beer assets have transacted at mid-teens multiples or higher (vs. 10.9x for $SAM before the news) --Suntory's deal history: Suntory bought Jim Beam in 2014 for $16bn--a much larger deal than $SAM--and paid a healthy 19.9x LTM EBITDA. A similar multiple would yield +55% upside from SAM's current share price --Existing partnership with Jim Beam : In 2021, SAM signed a partnership with Jim Beam to produce & market "ready to drink" canned cocktails. Despite being a small percentage of sales, it represents a toehold relationship between $SAM and Suntory In an interesting twist, the Journal reported on 6/4 that Canadian cannabis producer Green Thumb ($GTII.CN) had thrown its hat in the ring, offering to explore a merger with $SAM in a letter sent over the weekend. Notwithstanding Green Thumb's unclear ability to pay (its market cap of $2.8bn is smaller than SAM's) and dubious strategic rationale (no clear overlaps in production, sales & marketing, or distribution), SAM now seems to be in play with two bidders circling. Putting aside founder Jim Koch's voting control of Boston Beer, the competitive dynamics seem to set up nicely for something to happen here. But it's hard to get away from the underlying fundamentals of the business: --US Beer consumption is in decline --The Craft category is growing but overcrowded (the number of US craft breweries has grown from 1,500 in 2009 to 10,000 in 2023) --Even though 85% of SAM's 2023 volume was in non-beer products (cider, seltzer, malt bevs, etc) commanding 23% share of the "beyond beer" category, shipments of Truly—Sam’s flagship asset in the category—comped down -15% and -21% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Not great. All of this is reflected in SAM's financial profile, where profitability per unit of volume has deteriorated over time due to gross margin degradation and higher promotional spending. The potential upside of Suntory paying a high premium beckons, but without it, $SAM’s only secular growth engine (seltzer) has ostensibly jumped the shark and the unit economics seem to have gotten structurally worse concurrently with that initial growth spurt. It's a common conudrum for Special Situations investors. Betting on binary strategic outcomes is tough. But if you’re going to get involved, you might as well get to know the asset you’ll own on the other side of your catalyst. You can check out our fundamental analysis here: https://lnkd.in/e9ajqU-C See how Understory's exhaustive fundamental data--available in minutes--can help you sharpen your pencil on this or any situation.

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Check out this great analysis on Sam Adams powered by Understory

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 Exposing the Dark Side of CPG Brokers: Time for Accountability I’ve seen too many small and emerging brands in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) space fall prey to unscrupulous brokers. These self-proclaimed “connectors” promise vast retail distribution, big buyers, and exponential growth—yet, all too often, they deliver nothing but broken promises What Goes Wrong? Lack of Transparency: They withhold critical market insights, limiting your ability to make informed decisions. Limited Effort Post-Contract: After signing, their enthusiasm and support often evaporate, leaving small businesses stranded. No Long-Term Strategy: Instead of building sustainable relationships, these brokers opt for quick wins that rarely benefit the brand. Why It Matters For startups and small businesses, every dollar counts. Wasted resources on poor brokerage services can make or break a fledgling CPG brand. On top of that, unethical practices hurt the broader industry by eroding trust and creating barriers to entry. A Call for Accountability Ask for References: Don’t just rely on a broker’s flashy pitch. Reach out to brands they’ve represented for honest feedback. Require Transparency: Make sure every fee, deliverable, and timeline is spelled out in writing. Build a Support Network: Whether it’s through LinkedIn groups, industry forums, or fellow entrepreneurs, lean on your community to stay informed. Speak Up: If you’ve had a bad experience, share your story. Accountability starts with visibility. Join the Conversation Have you or someone you know dealt with a “bad broker” experience? What red flags do you look out for before signing a deal? Drop your insights below and let’s help each other navigate the CPG landscape more responsibly. Let’s raise our collective voice to ensure that integrity wins out and that deserving small businesses get the representation—and respect—they merit. Share this in your network: Adam Siskin Scott Glassman Russell KohnAlex Bayer Stephen Gaither Scott Lerner Eric Skae Wade Yenny Bert Cohen Chris RobbAlan Murray Maya French Shibani BalujaAdam ButlerKim Oster-HolsteinPete Maldonado

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Beverage alcohol consumption has undergone significant changes in recent years, influenced heavily by the pandemic and evolving preferences of younger consumers aged 21 and older. I joined Joan Holleran Driggs for an episode of Circana’s Growth Insights podcast to explore these shifts and offer insights into what we can expect for 2024 and beyond. Here are the key takeaways: 🍺 Traditionally, adults aged 21+ started with beer or wine. Now, many young adults are beginning with ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages, particularly spirits-based options. 📉 Despite a plethora of choices, overall beverage alcohol consumption is softening across generations. However, premium beverages are still experiencing growth. 🥤 The appeal of RTD beverage alcohol among younger consumers is largely due to innovative packaging, including on-the-go options like ball form, slim cans, and aseptic packaging. 🥃 Whiskey, tequila, spirits-based RTDs, and imported beer from Mexico continue to drive the beverage alcohol market. Listen to the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/gqRdf9Xd #Circana #BeverageAlcohol #RTD #GenerationalTrends #PremiumBeverages #CircanaGrowthInsights

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What does it take to build something great? In this clip from my full interview with him recently, Athletic Brewing founder Bill Shufelt shared a defining moment when they destroyed an entire truckload of beer rather than compromise on quality. It's a powerful lesson in leadership - facing challenges head-on, maintaining standards while scaling, and putting long-term value ahead of short-term gains. Watch how America's fastest-growing brewery tackles problems while staying true to its mission. https://lnkd.in/eEPkMxvD

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📈 Kroger is navigating the evolving landscape of consumer spending with a cautious outlook, despite exceeding first-quarter expectations. Their commitment to delivering value remains steadfast as they reaffirm the full-year same-store sales and profit forecasts. In Q1, our identical sales, excluding fuel, grew 0.5%, surpassing estimates of 0.13%. They reported adjusted EPS of $1.43, exceeding expectations of $1.35 per share. Looking ahead, they anticipate similar earnings trends for the second quarter. Kroger is dedicated to meeting customer needs while adapting to market dynamics. #Retail #ConsumerTrends #innovation #venturecapital #hospitality #FinancialPerformance Branded Hospitality Ventures Rodney McMullen Jessica M Ziza Howard Popoola Jordan Poff Colleen Lindholz Yael Cosset Katy Greiner https://lnkd.in/gc9zsHdq

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Great to see the longstanding issue of mysterious fees impacting CPG brands and their consumers getting some national recognition by the The Wall Street Journal. Legacy distributors say that it's because emerging brands don't understand what they signed up for: “There are costs to doing business,” she said, noting that KeHE moves some 80,000 different products to 35,000 stores. “We don’t charge for the sake of charging.” Conklin said KeHE’s practices are spelled out in contracts signed by food makers, and that small brands often don’t fully understand the terms they agree to with distributors and grocers. While digital upstarts like Pod Foods say that it's more a problem with an outdated infrastructure: "That leaves distributors reliant on so-called inside income, or revenue generated from food manufacturers. “Inside income isn’t ancillary to [distributors’] business,” said Peter Gialantzis, chief merchandising officer of startup food distributor Pod Foods. “Without that, they would go out of business. Gialantzis, who has worked at KeHE and Amazon’s Whole Foods, said distributors aren’t malicious, but that their systems are challenging for smaller brands." Time for a change to keep emerging CPG brands healthy and thriving! https://lnkd.in/g-2iTGgR #CPG #fooddistribution #fees #distributors #grocery #prices Pod Foods Larissa Russell Peter Gialantzis Fiona Lee Ammar Hanafi Moment Ventures Jim Baum Michael Frederick Marcotte Christian Gammill Jim Curry Manan M.

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